The Impact of Sheikh Hasina’s Re-election on India-Bangladesh Relations

Sheikh Hasina, the leader of the Awami League, has secured a historic fourth consecutive term as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh after winning the national elections held on January 7, 2024. Her victory has been welcomed by India, which considers Bangladesh a critical ally and a key partner in its ‘Act East’ policy. However, her re-election also poses some challenges for the bilateral relationship, as well as for the regional stability and balance of power.

A model partnership

India and Bangladesh share a common history, heritage, culture and geographical proximity, which form the basis of their close and friendly ties. India was the first country to recognise Bangladesh as an independent nation in 1971, and provided crucial military and material support to its liberation struggle against Pakistan. Since then, India has been a consistent partner in Bangladesh’s development and progress.

Under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, the bilateral relationship has reached new heights of cooperation and trust. She has resolved many outstanding issues with India, such as the land and maritime boundary disputes, the sharing of river waters, and the facilitation of transit and connectivity. She has also taken a firm stance against terrorism and extremism, and cracked down on anti-India elements operating from Bangladesh’s soil.

India has reciprocated by enhancing its economic and development assistance to Bangladesh, as well as its defence and security cooperation. India is Bangladesh’s largest trading partner in South Asia, and its second largest source of foreign direct investment. India has also extended concessional lines of credit worth over $10 billion to Bangladesh for various infrastructure and social sector projects. India and Bangladesh have also signed several agreements to boost their cooperation in areas such as energy, space, health, education, culture and tourism.

The two countries have also increased their engagement at the regional and multilateral levels, such as through the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), and the United Nations.

A challenging scenario

Despite the remarkable progress made in the bilateral relationship, Sheikh Hasina’s re-election also presents some challenges for both countries. One of them is the domestic political situation in Bangladesh, which is marked by polarisation, violence and allegations of human rights violations. The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, boycotted the elections, citing lack of a level playing field and intimidation by the ruling party. The BNP and its allies have accused Sheikh Hasina of rigging the polls, suppressing dissent, and undermining democracy. They have also vowed to continue their protests until she steps down.

Sheikh Hasina faces a dilemma in dealing with her political opponents. If she releases them from jail and allows them to organise demonstrations, she risks facing more unrest and instability. If she keeps them in jail and cracks down on their supporters, she risks facing more criticism and isolation from the international community. Either way, she will have to balance her need for stability with her commitment to democracy.

Another challenge for Sheikh Hasina is her relationship with the United States, which has been strained over various issues. The US has expressed its concern over the fairness of the elections, the human rights situation in Bangladesh, and the treatment of the Rohingya refugees from Myanmar. The US has also urged Sheikh Hasina to engage in dialogue with her political opponents and restore confidence in the democratic process. The US has also been wary of Sheikh Hasina’s growing proximity to China, which has emerged as a major investor and partner for Bangladesh.

China has offered Bangladesh billions of dollars in loans and grants for various infrastructure projects under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China has also supplied Bangladesh with military equipment and technology, including submarines, missiles, radars and drones. China has also supported Bangladesh’s position on the Rohingya crisis at the UN Security Council.

Sheikh Hasina will have to navigate her relations with both the US and China carefully, without compromising her national interests or her ties with India. She will also have to address some of the concerns raised by India regarding China’s role in Bangladesh, such as its potential influence on its security and sovereignty.

A way forward

Sheikh Hasina’s re-election offers an opportunity for both India and Bangladesh to consolidate their partnership and address their challenges. India should continue to support Sheikh Hasina’s vision of a stable, prosperous and democratic Bangladesh, while respecting its sovereignty and autonomy. India should also enhance its economic engagement with Bangladesh by reducing trade barriers, increasing investments, facilitating connectivity and promoting people-to-people exchanges.

India should also deepen its strategic cooperation with Bangladesh by strengthening its defence ties, sharing intelligence inputs, conducting joint exercises and providing capacity-building assistance. India should also work with Bangladesh to address the common threats of terrorism, extremism, climate change and natural disasters.

India should also coordinate with Bangladesh on regional and global issues of mutual interest, such as the BIMSTEC, the SAARC, the IORA and the UN. India should also support Bangladesh’s efforts to resolve the Rohingya crisis peacefully and humanely, and provide humanitarian assistance to the refugees.

India and Bangladesh have a unique and special relationship, which has been nurtured by Sheikh Hasina’s leadership. Her re-election provides a chance for both countries to take their partnership to the next level, and contribute to the peace, stability and prosperity of the region and the world.